Les cycles de Benner

Ok let's talk about this "Good Ol’ Sam". First, he was not an economist but a farmer who went bankrupt due to the 1873 crisis. He attempted to understand the causes of market fluctuations and discovered significant cyclicity. He published his findings in the 1875 "BENNER PROPHECIES," which included an 11-year cycle in corn and pig prices, with peaks alternating every 5 to 6 years. He also identified an 11-year cycle in cotton prices. Additionally, he observed a 27-year cycle in pig iron prices, which dropped every 11, 9, and 7 years, and peaked approximately every 8, 9, and 10 years. Cotton prices cycle peaked every 11 years. A 27 years cycle in pig iron prices dropped every 11, 9, 7 years and peaked of the order of 8, 9, 10 years. https://cvc.li/ttJSa Remember he was a farmer? So his prophecies were based on his knowledge of cycles such as the solar cycle. He never predicted anything beyond 1904, so he did not foresee events like the 1929 crash, WWII, or Covid-19. If you closely examine the graph, you can observe cycles of 11-9-7 and 8-9-10 years, but the 27-year cycle is replaced by an 18-year cycle, which aligns with the theory. This raises questions about the validity of the prophecies. Additionally, there is not enough historical economic data to make coherent long-term forecasts, and no economic theory fully accounts for the variability of human behaviour. Had political decisions been different in 1938, Sam's predictions might have been entirely off the mark.